Giro Stage 10 pVAM analysis ‘n’ prognostication

Using the latest version of Scott’s pVAM equation:

pVAM = 2912.14 + 426.293 ln(gradient) – 0.0711 Vclimb – 0.0836 Altitude

http://www.cyclismas.com/2013/05/what-to-expect-from-the-giro-favourites-predicting-climbing-performances/

we take a deeper look

to see just what the hell is goin on in this Giro

first up the climbs

whats immediately apparent is

the Lanza n the Montasio

aint the same animal

while finishing at a similar altitude uv 1550 meters

the true climb uv the Lanza climbs is steeper 9.5% gradient

vs

7.9% fer the Montasio

but

shorter at 581 m for the Lanza

vs

859 m for the Montasio

if ridden flat out

the pVAM for the shorter steeper Lanza works out to

1738 meters/hour

which is higher than predicted for

the longer less steep Montasio pVAM

1640 meters/hour

in their collective show uv force

Sky hit the front ticking off an actual VAM (aVAM) uv

1611 meters / hours

shedding everyone

except fer everyone who mattered

in contrast

on the Montasio

Uran went up the road at an actual VAM of 1615 meters/hour

with the remainder of the favorites littering the climb behind him

looking at the residuals

the difference between the pVAM and aVAM

it becomes clear that the race played to Nibali’s strengths

while Sky’s tactics start to look flat bewildering

what we see on the finishing climb residuals

is that only Uran even came close to hitting the predicted

despite his atttack that utltimately shattered the group

what this means is that the climb was not

started

ridden

and

finished

at threshold

in 2012 TDF le train brad fashion

but instead

ridden like a climber climb

with a slow start (holding the overal aVAM down)

followed by a hard acceleration

above threshold

letting the punchier Nibali

drop

Brad

and the other pure diesels

despite the total climb being ridden

below uh pace that an on form Brad

had been able to sustain in previous performances

http://www.cyclismas.com/2013/05/what-to-expect-from-the-giro-favourites-predicting-climbing-performances/recent-performances-of-giro-contenders/

,

and

the SKY effort on the Lanza

?

impressive to the camera

but at 8% off uv a pVAM pace

unlikley to have done much damage

to anyone able to ride within 5% uv pVAM

(which was everybody except hesjedal)

…

therefore the prognostication

is unless SKY resurrects

le train Brad

and takes the intermediate climbs at 5% uv pVAM

and the finishing climbs within

2% uv pVAM

Brad will get attacked and dropped

in the final finishing climb kilometers

like he did in stage 10