did the rain really put out the fire works?
the DpW/kg analysis says:
not really
with the performance from
Nibali and Horner
still splitting bars on the cold wet stage
…
starting with the eW/kg
in standardized W/kg terms (for a Froome sized rider)
Nibali and Horner put up
5.9 W/kg (standardized)
with a spread of
5.8 – 5.9 W/kg (full draft – no draft condition)
Valverde
5.6 W/kg (5.6 – 5.7)
Rodriguez
5.8 W/kg (5.7 – 5.8)
and
Pozzovivo
5.6 W/kg (5.6 – 5.7)
given the rain and the extra weight in wet clothes
a second simulation adding 1 kg
basically adds 0.1 W/kg to the estimates FWIW
…
in more specific physiology terms
split bars indicates that the performance was
faster than what would be expected
of a clean rider with a VO2max of 90 ml/min/kg @ 23% efficiency
but
slower
than the same rider doped with the equivalent of 700 ml of blood
up to a VO2 max of 95 ml/kg/min @ 23% efficiency
…
using Horner again as our guinea pig
another way to look at the physiology of the performance
is to calculate the VO2max necessary pull of the performance
rerunning the W/kg estimate
specific to Horner’s height 1.8 meters
and published weight 63.5 kg
the simulator gives rider size specific estimates of
5.9 w/kg for the half draft condition
(5.8 – 6.0 for full – no draft)
the total power can then be broken down into
a critical power component
and
a reserve component
(critical power for simplicity can be thought of as the aerobic threshold and the reserve as the anaerobic contribution)
in Horner’s case
critical power contributes 5.7 w/kg
with the reserve contributing the remaining 0.3 w/kg
(note that the extra 0.1 w/kg with rounding)
once the critical power is isolated
the VO2 required to produce the wattage can be calculated
at 70 ml/min/kg
and assuming that critical power is 85% of VO2max
(note that Vaughters thinks 85% is low and provided me with lab data showing at least one rider hold 86% at lactate threshold)
the 70 ml/min/kg at altitude
works out to a sea level
VO2max of 91 ml/min/kg at an efficiency of 23%
…
as a recap
Horner’s performances so far
would have required sea level VO2 max of
Stage 8: 92
Stage 10: 97
Stage 14: 91
assuming 23 % efficiency and CP at @ 85% of VO2max
to perform at the level observed
if that level is regularly beyond the plausible limits of human physiology
then doping has to be considered a possibility
for perspective
running through the same exercise
on Vayer’s data set for Lemond
put the vast majority of his performances
below 90 ml/min/kg VO2 max 23% efficiency
or well within the limits of his known physiology.
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